In today’s episode of “Global Geopolitics: The Sequel,” Donald Trump says he’s nudging India to slash its Russian oil purchases. If India listens, Moscow’s wallet will get lighter — but the oil probably won’t disappear. It will simply don a new costume, slip into the shadow market, and keep sailing.
The claim, in one brisk paragraph
On Wednesday, President Trump told reporters that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia. Delhi, predictably, has not confirmed that exact pledge. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency numbers in hand, the scene looks like this: India bought roughly 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude in the first nine months of 2025 — about 40% of Russia’s seaborne exports during that period. Translation: India has been a very busy bargain hunter since 2022.
Why Washington is knocking on New Delhi’s door
The U.S. push comes amid a fresh Western campaign to squeeze Moscow’s energy revenue, particularly after Ukraine began targeting Russian energy infrastructure. Trump — who last week bragged about a “successful” phone call and announced another summit with Vladimir Putin — seems to be trying to keep the diplomatic momentum going. If the next summit doesn’t produce a breakthrough, expect the pressure on India to continue like background music at a tense family dinner.
Financial pinch or political theater? (Spoiler: both.)
If India folds — possibly as part of a larger trade deal — the financial sting for Russian sales would be real. Washington has already slapped a 25% tariff on some Indian imports in retaliation for New Delhi’s past oil purchases. Some Indian refiners are reportedly preparing to cut Russian crude, though any concrete decline won’t probably show up before December.
At the same time, the European Union is rolling out a ban on imports of fuel refined from Russian crude beginning Jan 21, which matters because Europe buys more than one-third of India’s diesel and aviation fuel exports. For Indian refiners that have been enjoying fat margins buying discounted Russian oil, the new measures are an unwelcome haircut.
The tangled refinery romance: Russia ↔ India
India’s energy sector is not a simple marketplace — it’s a web of decade-long contracts and mutual dependencies. Reliance struck a massive 10-year deal with Rosneft for nearly 500,000 bpd of crude. Rosneft also has stakes in other big Indian refineries — Nayara’s Vadinar complex, for instance, runs primarily on Russian crude and has already felt the squeeze from EU and UK sanctions. For these refineries, turning off the Russian tap isn’t a light switch — it’s a logistical and economic reshuffle that takes time and cash.
Can China mop up the leftovers? Not easily
If India cuts back, who buys the surplus? China is the usual suspect: it already imported around 2.1 million bpd of Russian oil between January and September. But Beijing historically avoids putting more than ~20% of its imports from a single source — and it doesn’t want another tariff boxing match with Washington. So while China might pick up some extra cargoes, it probably won’t be a one-stop solution.
Enter the shadow fleet: where oil plays dress-up
If transparency shrinks, secrecy grows. Russia has leaned heavily on an ageing “shadow fleet” of tankers to dodge sanctions. In September, 69% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports reportedly rode on those ghost ships. These vessels often perform ship-to-ship transfers mid-ocean, scrubbing the paperwork and the scent of origin off the cargo. The result: what was once obviously “Russian” crude can reappear anywhere, under a different name and a cleaner manifest.
So yes, shrinking India’s official purchases would narrow Russia’s list of visible buyers and likely force deeper discounts — but it will also shove more barrels into murkier channels. The oil doesn’t vanish; it just becomes harder to follow.
Bottom line (the one-liner your editor loves)
Squeezing Russia’s public sales might hit Moscow’s revenue — but the global oil market is a clever creature: turn up the pressure in daylight, and it slips into the shadows by night. Unless diplomacy delivers a surprise outcome at the next summit, expect fewer headline-friendly deals and more obscure tankers playing hide-and-seek across the high seas.
Quip for the road:
You can try to stop the flow of cheap crude with tariffs and tough talk — but don’t be surprised if the barrels simply queue up for their stage exit… then reappear in costume backstage.
